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Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) toreduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand

The COVID-19 pandemic is now a major global health threat. As of 16
th March 2020, there have been
164,837 cases and 6,470 deaths confirmed worldwide. Global spread has been rapid, with 146
countries now having reported at least one case.

The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of public health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducing contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission.

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